Summer is over. Lets check long term TFs
Yep. It is that time of a year – end of summer (unless you live down there 😉 ). Why is this important in trading? Summer is usually a lazy period with lower volatility. Especially end of the summer is always boring and in my opinion, it is the best time to take a break in trading.
But summer is behind us, we had NFP and some strong moves as a result of that data. This is a good moment to check longer time frames and see what is the situation right now.
On a weekly chart, the situation is rather good for buyers. EUR/USD is above 200 MA, before that it broke out from the triangle. Looks good.
But the monthly chart is most important here. EUR/USD is below 200 MA and important resistance area. If it can break above that level then this can be an impulse for a stronger move up. In another scenario, we can see sell off from here. So you can see that this EUR/USD is in very important place:
All the same here. Trend is up. SPX is under important resistance at 2480. If it can go above that, we can expect another swing up:
Of course, you want to watch for that green trend line. Any move below that can be a signal for a stronger move down.
GBP/JPY is recently very hard to trade. There is a multi-month range move, you can see it here:
So we have no clear direction, we just stick to that wide range. We can see why GBP/JPY have problems to go up – it is right below 61.8% retracement:
Is it a massive ABCD pattern? Hard to tell. Even if not and price can go up above 61.8 then there are 78.2 retracement line, 100 and 200 MA… This can take months to sort out.
After bad NFP numbers gold went up. It loos very good on weekly chart, with breakout from the triangle:
You can check monthly chart, there are few possible Fibonacci setups, I think this is the most accurate for now:
161.8% or 200% are possible targets if there will be a successful break above 200 MA.
Very interesting situation on weekly chart:
There is a clear break above 200 MA and it looks like AUD/NZD will try to attack strong resistance at 1.12 level. We will see how it goes.
OK, that’s it for today. A quick look, I hope you can see why it is good to check higher time frames from time to time.
Have a good trading week 🙂